Further welfare cuts anticipated as Rachel Reeves prepares to ship spring assertion – UK politics keep | Spring assertion 2025

Rachel Reeves received’t be elevating taxes inside the spring assertion in the intervening time, even if there are many of us on the left who would really like taxes to rise as another option to public spending being decrease. Reeves received right here into office promising only one budget-type event a yr, and that’s one trigger why she shouldn’t be mountaineering taxes in the intervening time. But primarily it’s on account of she thinks Britons are comparatively extraordinarily taxed already, on account of Labour was elected on a manifesto ruling out most of the obvious attainable tax rises and since she’s not happy a sweeping wealth tax would work.

But that has not stopped campaigners calling for a wealth tax, and yesterday about 300 of us attended a ‘Tax the Super-Rich’ rally outside the Treasury. It was organised by charities and social justice advertising marketing campaign groups, nonetheless one in every of many audio system was Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green celebration, which is in favour of a wealth tax.

Caitlin Boswell, head of advocacy at Tax Justice UK, one in every of many groups involved, acknowledged:

Across the nation, inequality is hovering and individuals are being left behind, struggling to make ends meet and dealing with broken public corporations, all whereas the very richest get richer. Choosing to make decrease after decrease to the poorest and most marginalised, whereas leaving the large helpful useful resource of the extreme wealth of the super rich untouched, is immoral, harmful, and received’t ship for our communities or the monetary system.

Here is an in a single day Guardian article by Phillip Inman and Aletha Adu on what to anticipate from in the intervening time’s spring assertion.

And proper right here is an article by Richard Partington with 5 graphics illustrating the figures that specify the alternate options Rachel Reeves is making.

The British Medical Journal, a primary medical publication, has printed an article by 4 public nicely being specialists saying the sickness and incapacity revenue cuts launched remaining week – the one largest decrease in in the intervening time’s spring assertion bundle – would possibly lead to deaths.

The article says:

A key proposal inside the inexperienced paper is to tighten entry to Pip [personal independence payment] – a revenue overlaying the extra costs of incapacity or future nicely being circumstances – by elevating the eligibility threshold. The Fraser of Allander Institute, an neutral monetary evaluation centre, estimates that saving £1bn a yr would possibly suggest about 250 000 fewer of us receiving Pip. Existing proof suggests that’s unlikely to increase employment expenses. Previous governments have sought to restrict eligibility to, and ranges of, these benefits. Most notably, merely over 1,000,000 current recipients had their eligibility re-assessed between 2010 and 2013, with benefits eradicated if the assessor thought they’d been match for work. This led to an increase in 290 000 of us with psychological nicely being points, elevated antidepressant prescribing, and an estimated 600 suicides.

One of the group, Prof Gerry McCartney – a specialist in wellbeing monetary system on the University of Glasgow, acknowledged:

There is now substantial proof that cuts to social security since 2010 have principally harmed the nicely being of the UK inhabitants.

Implementing however further cuts will as a consequence of this reality finish in further premature deaths. It is necessary that the UK Government understands this proof and takes a definite protection technique.

Keir Starmer (or someone on his crew, to be further precise) has posted this message regarding the spring assertion on social media this morning.

In an interval of worldwide change, we’re going to ship security for working of us and renewal for Britain.

Cabinet ministers normally deal with a smile for the cameras as soon as they arrive in Downing Street for cabinet. But in the intervening time, judging by the photographs, they’d been wanting further downbeat than regular. They had been arriving to hearken to Rachel Reeves transient them on the spring assertion, along with the shock additional revenue cuts revealed in a single day. (See 8.33am.)

Here are numerous the arrival photos.

We is perhaps opening suggestions on the weblog at about 10am. And they’ll maintain open until about 3pm. They are closing prior to regular on account of our moderator cowl is a bit restricted this week.

Ever since Donald Trump turned US president, Keir Starmer and all his ministers have tried as loads as attainable to stay away from saying what they offer thought to the entire points being acknowledged and completed by his administration (numerous which are abhorrent to mainstream UK political opinion). Sometimes Starmer and his crew have adopted the street that it’s not their job to be “commentators”. (Lynton Crosby used to try the same argument with the Tories.) This has led to many interviews taking a surreal flip, like Angela Rayner’s on the World at One yesterday, the place she refused repeated makes an try to produce any necessary response to JD Vance, the US vice-president, and Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, denouncing the Europeans as pathetic freeloaders.

But this morning John Healey, the defence secretary, was a bit further forthcoming. In an interview with Times Radio, requested regarding the Vance/Hegseth argument, he acknowledged:

I regard it further of an issue.

Asked as soon as extra regarding the Europeans being described as pathetic freeloaders, he acknowledged:

The Americans have gotten a case, the Americans have fully purchased a case, that on defence spending, on European security, on our assist for Ukraine, European nations can and may do further and the UK is major the way in which during which.

I’m pleased with that on defence spending, on European security and on Ukraine. It’s why we’re pulling collectively the coalition.

And in an interview on the Today programme, requested about Trump’s specific envoy Steve Witkoff describing Keir Starmer’s Ukraine protection as posturing, Healey did push once more in the direction of Witkoff’s argument, with out criticising him personally. He acknowledged:

I’m proud that the UK, alongside France, is major the coalition of the ready, ready to face by Ukraine inside the event of a negotiated peace merely as we now have by the battle.

And we’re responding to the US downside to European nations similar to the UK to do further to assist Ukraine.

We’re responding to the requirement of Ukraine to say, ‘look, post-ceasefire, what are the security arrangements that give us the confidence that any negotiated peace will, as President Trump has said, be a durable peace’.

John Healey, the defence secretary, has been doing an interview spherical this morning on account of in a single day the Treasury briefed journalists that Rachel Reeves will announce an extra £2.2bn in defence spending from April inside the spring assertion. (Presumably that was the story the Treasury press office had been hoping might be major the data bulletins this morning, not the model new revenue cuts).

In its data launch, the Treasury acknowledged:

The chancellor will announce an extra £2.2bn funding improve for defence from April, as she warns that Britain has to “move quickly in a changing world”.

The funding is perhaps invested in superior utilized sciences so that Britain’s armed forces have the devices they need to compete and win in trendy warfare. This consists of guaranteeing the funding to swimsuit Royal Navy ships with Directed Energy Weapons by 2027. These weapons can hit a £1 coin from 1km away and take down drones at a distance of 5km.

It will even be used to supply increased homes for navy households by refurbishing the defence property – along with over 36,000 homes simply these days launched once more into public possession from the rental sector. In addition to this, the funding will unlock speedy preparatory work, equal to site surveys, planning and construction, for the principle redevelopment of armed forces housing by the defence housing method.

The funding will even help fund upgrades to infrastructure at His Majesty’s Naval Base Portsmouth, securing its capability to assist Royal Navy operations into the long term.

Defence spending in 2024/25 was spherical £57bn.

According to the Treasury, in her spring assertion speech later Reeves will say:

In February, the prime minister set out the federal authorities’s dedication to increase spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027 and an ambition to spend 3% of GDP on defence inside the subsequent parliament as monetary and financial circumstances allow.

That was the correct willpower in a further insecure world, inserting an extra £6.4bn into the defence funds by 2027.

But we now need to maneuver shortly in a altering phrase. And that begins with funding.

So I can in the intervening time affirm that I’ll current an extra £2.2bn for the Ministry of Defence subsequent yr – an extra downpayment on our plans to ship 2.5% of GDP.

This improve in funding is just not solely about rising our nationwide security nonetheless rising our monetary security, too.

As defence spending rises, I would really like the complete nation to essentially really feel the benefits.

UK inflation has fallen once more by higher than forecast to 2.8%, providing some constructive data for Rachel Reeves sooner than she makes her spring assertion, Richard Partington tales.

Good morning. This time remaining week Stephen Timms, a welfare minister, was doing an interview spherical to defend the £5bn incapacity revenue cuts launched yesterday, and he refused to rule out further revenue cuts ultimately. Most of us thought he was being cautious as a result of hazard of further cuts in a while this parliament, or presumably later this yr. I don’t assume anyone anticipated additional cuts to be launched inside days.

But that’s exactly what has occurred. As Heather Stewart, Kiran Stacey and Richard Partington report inside the Guardian splash, solely hours sooner than the spring assertion, the Treasury has revealed that the incapacity revenue cuts are going to be even deeper than these set out remaining week. That is on account of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the federal authorities’s all-powerful fiscal regulator, has dominated that the Treasury was being unrealistic when it acknowledged the revenue cuts would save £5bn. (The OBR is perhaps correct – beforehand revenue “crackdowns” haven’t typically saved as loads the Treasury forecasts.). And this means the cuts have to be beefed up, to avoid wasting a number of one different £1.6bn.

The change was first reported by the Times, which says that “universal credit incapacity benefits for new claimants will now be frozen until 2030 rather than increased in line with inflation” and that there’ll even be “a small reduction in the basic rate of universal credit in 2029”.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves had been already coping with a strong backlash from Labour backbenchers over the revenue cuts. This enchancment is extra prone to exacerbate that, although pretty how seen that is perhaps in the intervening time is troublesome to predict. Many Labour MPs are alarmed regarding the cuts in private, nonetheless haven’t spoke out publicly.

John Healey, the defence secretary, has been giving interviews this morning, and he has defended what the Treasury is doing. Referring to the analysis that remaining week’s revenue cuts will solely save £3.4bn, not £5bn, he instructed Times Radio:

I imagine that’s a calculation that we would even see confirmed from the Office of Budget Responsibility about the long term monetary financial savings that our plans to change the welfare system would possibly convey, and that’s a must-do for any accountable authorities, considerably one which believes inside the significance of our social security system. Doing nothing shouldn’t be an risk. It’s failing and writing off a youthful expertise.

Today we is perhaps focusing almost solely on the spring assertion. Graeme Wearden, who writes the Guardian’s enterprise weblog, is perhaps changing into a member of me proper right here later, and we is perhaps overlaying the assertion intimately, and bringing you all the easiest analysis and response.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.

12.30pm: Rachel Reeves delivers the spring assertion.

2.30pm: Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, holds a press conference.

4.15pm: Reeves holds a press conference.

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